南風熏兮

       很久没有写点什么了，万万没有想到会在睡觉前用这些文字来填补自己这枯燥、单调、死气沉沉的博客。

 

       西方人好像普遍相信上帝对待每个人都是公平的——赐予你某项异禀时，总会在夺走些什么。比如霍金，上帝赐予他超于常人的智慧，却夺走了他健康的身体；又如梵高，从上帝那得到的是异于常人的绘画禀赋，可他的作品以及一生都是充满悲剧色彩的；再如徐志摩，兼具诗人的才华与哲学家的智慧，但命运多舛的他，还没来得及拥有真爱就英年早逝。

 

       人们似乎总能以这样的眼光，冠冕堂皇地去检视他人，而一旦涉及自身时却大相径庭——总是抱怨上帝对自己如此不公平。我也毫不例外。不过最近发现的确如此。仔细将自己从小到大的成长历程搜肠刮肚一番，即便是那些已经忘记的角落也自欺欺人地梳理一边，慕然惊愕于自己那除了零星的即将枯死的杂草之外，而一无所有的荒凉的贫瘠土地。原本幻想可以用乏善可陈来形容，但事实无情地告我这太过妄想：不但学业一无所成，而且就连自己一贯以鄙夷的眼光所看不起的、所不齿的伎俩，比如电脑游戏、纸牌以及篮球、足球等诸如此类，也是无一擅长。

 

       也许自己的确是契诃夫笔下的套中人。

MONDAY  14:00 - 16:25: QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN FINANCE

 

TUESDAY   16:30 - 18:55: CORPORATE FINANCE

 

WEDNESDAT   15:00 - 17:40: PROBABILITY THEORY

                       18:00 - 20:30: STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

                       20:20 - 22:35: ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE

       Democrat Barack Hussein Obama was elected the first African-American president of the United States Tuesday, capping a meteoric rise for the freshman Illinois Senator whose message of change resonated with a broad cross section of anxious voters eager for a clear break from the policies of the past eight years.

       Obama was elected the 44th president of the United States, sweeping away the last racial barrier in American politics with ease as the country chose him as its first black chief executive.

       He said: " If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

       Its the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.

       Its the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled - Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.

       Its the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.

       Its been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.

       I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and hes fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nations promise in the months ahead.

       I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.

       I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last sixteen years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nations next First Lady, Michelle Obama. Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy thats coming with us to the White House. And while shes no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.

       To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics - you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what youve sacrificed to get it done.

       But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to - it belongs to you.

       I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didnt start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington - it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.

       It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generations apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.

       I know you didnt do this just to win an election and I know you didnt do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime - two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how theyll make the mortgage, or pay their doctors bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.

       The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America - I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you - we as a people will get there.

       There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who wont agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government cant solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way its been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years - block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

       What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek - it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.

       So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, its that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers - in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.

       Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House - a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, We are not enemies, but friends…though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn - I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.

       And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world - our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down - we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security - we support you. And to all those who have wondered if Americas beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.

       For that is the true genius of America - that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

       This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one thats on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. Shes a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing - Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.

       She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldnt vote for two reasons - because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.

       And tonight, I think about all that shes seen throughout her century in America - the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we cant, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.

       At a time when womens voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.

       When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.

       When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.

       She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that We Shall Overcome. Yes we can.

       A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.

       America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves - if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?

       This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time - to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth - that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we cant, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:

       Yes We Can. Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America."

     今天上課的時候，教授發回了上周提交的作業。字母A赫然在第一頁上邊。作業是五道論述題，目的是分析UPS的案例，根據是第一章和教授發的幾篇論文。第一次寫作業，加上對自己的英文寫作水平一直持有懷疑態度，因此從始至終都感覺戰戰兢兢、如履薄冰。 今天的A算是不錯的結果吧。在美國留學的第一個A，算是有個好的開始。

     仔細分析一下分數的得失，有不小的收獲。美國大學的作業跟國內不同，這邊教授似乎并不強調嚴格按照教科書中的內容作答，他們更注重論述問題的邏輯能力，也就是說，在自己的論文中，論點要一目了然，論據要充分具體，論證要合理嚴密。論點沒有什么可說的，重點談談后兩個。論據的具體是我在國內大學沒有遇到過的，仔細思考，的確有道理。論點好比人體的骨架，其目的是支撐整篇論文，而論據就是肌肉了。論據的種類可以很豐富，特別地，要是有自己親歷的事情作論據，那更是錦上添花。論證好比協調控制人體行動的神經系統，在西方的修辭學中，論證是有技巧的，比如段間關系以并列轉折、并列遞進、轉折遞進為三種有利的論證模式，等等，跟國人寫文章強調的啟承轉合頗有異曲同工之處。

     這門課的教授很喜歡留作業，看來以后有的寫了。

清——品位

慎——品德

勤——品行

忍——品格

       今天收到在银川的好朋友发来的中秋祝福，第一份哦！
       鼠年的八月十五对我来说必定特殊，第一次在异国他乡过中秋节，第一次品尝“中秋空对月，佳节倍思亲”的伤感，第一次体会“人有悲欢离合，约有阴晴圆缺”的寂寞。
       五味杂陈的人生体验也许并不是件坏事，喜怒哀乐都经历过，才能把这些当笑谈说。

雨霖铃    

     寒蝉凄切，对长亭晚，骤雨初歇。都门帐饮无绪，留恋处，兰舟催发。执手相看泪眼，竟无语凝噎。念去去、千里烟波，暮霭沉沉楚天阔。

     多情自古伤离别，更那堪、冷落清秋节!今宵酒醒何处?杨柳岸、晓风残月。此去经年，应是良辰好景虚设。便纵有千种风情，更与何人说！

     周日的北京笼罩在凄雨与灰蒙阴暗的天空中。母亲特意包了饺子为我送行，一边和父母聊着即将开始的在美国的生活，一边看着奥运游泳比赛，心里的感受五味杂陈。明天中午的飞机，离我愈来愈近，舱门关闭的那一刹那，我和父母就要天各一方了。

     师傅说，Tom你太多愁善感了！也许是吧，可是原因呢？是重感情还是懦弱？是不能承受生命中如此之重，还是没有能力面对在完全陌生的国度的生活？此刻，十月、法师、囡囡、考拉和瓜鱼正在一起欣赏着奥运游泳比赛，这也是我的愿望啊！鲨家帮的朋友一起看北京奥运游泳赛，一起去水立方游泳。前一个没有机会了，而后一个又是遥遥无期？真的是“此去经年”啊！

      孤单的奥运会，孤单的北半球！

     这两天都在忙于收拾行李，无暇他顾。手忙脚乱的过程中，发现自己根本无法集中精力。每每将朋友们送的礼物装进行囊，总要呆呆地看一阵，瓜鱼那贴有“兄弟珍重”的阿迪香水，小权囡囡的可爱版派克钢笔，心灵和小欲的雨伞，考拉那没有中文说明的旅行锁，以及她和崇山“文采嘉，字体秒”的卡片，小面和绿茶的相框，还有法师和十月没有送到的神秘礼物，睹物思人，那些快乐的画面，那些美好的瞬间，如同过电影一般，从眼前掠过。

     出神地看着小米送的万年历，中秋马上到了。以前总是略带调侃地跟在外国的朋友说“中秋空对月，佳节倍思亲”的感觉不好受吧，没想到自己很快就要亲身体验了。二十多年来，将第一次孤独地面对晓风残月，这种经历会让我成熟，也会让我伤感。瓜鱼，你们中秋会组织什么活动；十月，年底的《赤壁》下集我们不能一起欣赏了；考拉，我还想和你一起参加定向越野呢；COOL，你的凉皮我还没尝到啊；太多的遗憾只能用“来日方长，以后还有机会”来慰藉自己了。

     我从不怀疑，留学的经历会让我获益匪浅，正像筱蝶在送别K歌会上为我买的写有“前程似锦”的蛋糕。但是，这个过程我会经历怎样的悲欢苦乐，只有天界的神明了然于胸，而我对此除了恐惧与期待，别无他感。

     不抛弃，不放弃。唯有如此了。

幾張京劇臉譜

Chinese inflation

中國的通貨膨脹

Sweet and sour pork

五味雜陳的猪肉

 

Mar 13th 2008

2008年3月13日

From The Economist print edition

摘自《經濟學人》印刷版

 

Are rising prices in China driven by the supply of meat or money?

中國的價格上漲是由肉類供給或貨幣供給推動的嗎？

IN A country where bouts of inflation have triggered social unrest, the jump in China's inflation rate to a 12-year high of 8.7% in February is cause for concern. But economists are sharply divided on the cause of this inflation and the degree to which policy needs to be tightened.

遭受通貨膨脹的國家，其社會總是不安的。2月份，中國的通貨膨脹率躍升至近12年來的高點，已達8.7%，從而引起了廣泛關注。但對于通貨膨脹的成因以及應施行何種力度的緊縮政策，經濟學家們的意見却大相徑庭。

 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected soon to lift interest rates and banks' reserve requirements once again. Some people fear a repeat of 1987-88 or 1993-94 when high inflation forced the government to tighten monetary policy sharply(1), causing a hard economic landing.

人們預期，中國人民銀行（PBOC）很快會再次提高利率與銀行存款準備金率。有些人擔心，1987-88年或1993-94年的高通貨膨脹迫使政府執行緊縮的貨幣政策從而導致經濟硬著陸的情况將會重演。

 

One difference between today and previous surges in inflation is that(2) the increase over the past year has been caused mainly by food prices, which jumped by 23%. Vegetable prices are 46% higher than a year ago, pork is 63% dearer. The impact of various supply shocks, notably blue-ear disease which killed thousands of pigs, were aggravated(3) last month by the worst snowstorms for 50 years, damaging crops and disrupting transport. Non-food prices rose by only 1.6% over the past year. In 1994, by contrast, non-food inflation hit 20%.

與之前汹涌而來的通貨膨脹所不同的是，過去一年的增長主要是由猛增23%的食品價格所推動的；其中，蔬菜價格比前一年高出46%，猪肉價格則更是上漲了63%。上個月，一場50年來最嚴重的暴風雪灾害，使莊稼遭受毀滅性損失，幷導致交通大面積癱瘓，特別是在由藍耳病毒導致的大量生猪死亡的情况下，各種供給波動所帶來的衝擊更加明顯。非食品價格在去年只上漲了1.6%，而與此相對照的是，在1994年，非食品價格的增長則高達20%。

 

To the extent that food prices have been pushed up by one-off supply factors, they should flatten later this year, causing inflation to fall. If so, it is argued, there is no need to slam on the brakes. Moreover, higher interest rates would do little to curb food prices. Some policy makers also worry that if China raised interest rates sharply at the same time as America is cutting them, this would attract bigger capital inflows and the extra liquidity could actually worsen inflationary pressures.

從某種程度上來說，食品價格的上漲是由一次性供給因素所拉動的。2008年後期，供給緊張的狀况應該會得到緩解，從而通貨膨脹也會回落。若果真如此，那麽猛踩刹車就多此一舉了。况且，高利率水平對抑制食品價格幷無明顯作用。一些政策制定者擔心，中國在美國降息之時大幅加息，此舉會吸引大量資本流入中國，幷引起流動性過剩，從而加劇通貨膨脹壓力。

 

Indeed, some economists believe that excess money is already partly to blame for rising inflation. In the past there has been a tight correlation between China's inflation and money-supply growth. Monetary growth surged before both bouts of inflation in 1987-88 and 1993-94. In 1993 the annual rate of growth of the M2 measure of money hit 40%.

然而，有些經濟學家認爲，通貨膨脹應部分歸咎于過多的貨幣供給。縱觀歷史，中國的通貨膨脹與貨幣供給增長存在著緊密關係。在1987-88年以及1993-94年的通脹爆發前，貨幣供給量也有大幅增長。1993年，以M2爲度量的貨幣供給，年增長率高達40%。

 

Today it is less clear that the money supply is out of control(4). Over the past year M2 rose by 17.5%, not much faster than the average during 1998-2003 when prices were flat or falling. But Hong Liang, an economist at Goldman Sachs, reckons that the M2 measure of money understates the amount of liquidity sloshing around in China. She prefers M3, a broader measure, which(5) includes deposits in non-bank financial institutions and securities issued by financial institutions. According to her calculations, M3 growth has risen sharply since 2005, from around 15% to 23%. This suggests that higher inflation could prove to be more persistent and spread from food to other goods and services, requiring the PBOC to tighten by much more.

目前，貨幣供給失控的迹象幷不明顯。過去一年，以M2爲度量的貨幣供給增長17.5%，幷未大幅高于物價平穩甚至有所回落的1998-2003年的平均水平。但是，高盛的經濟學家梁紅估計，以M2爲度量的貨幣供給低估了中國的流動性總量。她更傾向使用範圍更加廣泛的，包含了非銀行金融機構的存款以及金融機構發行的債券的貨幣供給M3。根據她的計算，自2005年以來，M3大幅增長，其幅度高達15%至23%。這意味著，高通貨膨脹將會持續較長時間，幷且會波及到食品之外的商品和服務領域，從而導致中國人民銀行施行更加緊縮的貨幣政策。

 

But another difference between today and previous bouts of inflation is that in the past rising inflation went hand-in-hand with a widening current-account deficit—a classic symptom of overheating. Today China has a huge surplus. This offers another tool to fight inflation: a more rapid appreciation in the yuan alongside a modest interest-rate rise could curb imported inflation and cause less harm to domestic demand. Indeed, this is something that most economists can agree on: regardless of what is driving inflation up, a stronger yuan would help to pull it down.

但是，本輪通貨膨脹與之前相比的另一個不同點在于，過去的通貨膨脹總是伴隨著一種典型的經濟過熱症狀，即不斷膨脹的經常賬戶赤字。目前的中國擁有巨額的貿易順差，而這又爲對付通貨膨脹提供了另一個工具：人民幣大幅升值的同時伴隨小幅加息，這也許可以消除進口産品的通貨膨脹，同時對國內需求也只産生輕微損害。實際上，大多數經濟學家對此深信不疑：無論導致通貨膨脹的原因是什麽，人民幣的升值都能將其有效地遏制住。

中央銀行——危險的冰火兩重天

譯自《經濟學人》印刷版，2008年03月19日 華盛頓特區

原文地址http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10881032

世界各國的中央銀行的漸行漸遠令人擔憂，特別是在通貨膨脹和貨幣政策方面。

“有人說世界將結束于熊熊烈焰，有人說世界將結束于凜凜寒冰”，Robert Frost的詩句在中央銀行家聚會的時候，被罕見地引用了。但是，當哈佛大學教授、前國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家Ken Rogoff在最近一次的貨幣政策制定者的會議上，吟誦這位詩人頗具啓示的詩句時，不乏明智的贊同者。Rogoff說：“美聯儲認爲世界將結束于熊熊烈焰”。與此相反，歐洲央行則擔心世界將結束于凜凜寒冰。

美聯儲正在匆忙撲滅金融危機與衰退之火。最近，美國央行通過向信貸市場注入大量的流動資金，從而快速地創造了一個新的借貸機會：它幫助JP摩根大通挽救了美國第五大投資銀行貝爾史登。不僅如此，3月18日，美聯儲還將聯邦基金利率下調了0.25%，這是兩個月內第三次大幅下調聯邦基金利率。目前，2.25%的聯邦基金利率已經比自去年8月金融動蕩開始時的利率降低了三個百分點。

其它中央銀行，如英格蘭銀行、日本銀行以及歐洲央行，也于本周小幅擴張了流動性，但沒有一家央行像美聯儲那樣急切地放鬆貨幣政策。儘管美聯儲害怕經濟衰退與金融危機，但大部分央行則對通貨膨脹更加憂心。英國與加拿大也調低了利率，但幅度遠小于美國；日本維持現行利率不變；歐洲央行的主導利率仍爲4%，與澳大利亞相同。其餘絕大部分央行要麽保持現行利率不變，要麽上調利率。的確，除美國以外，特別是在歐洲，央行均擔心美聯儲正在引發新的泡沫，而此舉使得央行花費25年煞費苦心建立的信用即將毀于一旦。

美聯儲與其它央行之間的分歧毋庸置疑正在對貨幣市場産生影響。美元持續下跌：與其它主要貨幣相比，美元正處于自1973年浮動匯率制度建立以來最爲疲軟的時刻。3月13日，美元對日元更是12年來首次跌破100日元。而本周，直到美聯儲宣布降息（市場預期可能還會再次降息）之後，美元對歐元及瑞士法郎貶值的趨勢才得到遏制。受此影響，以美元計算的商品價格却一路飆升：石油價格超過每桶100美元，黃金價格也已超過每盎司1000美元。

美元的疲軟正在挑動著其它國家政策制定者的神經。對央行會出手干預美元下滑的預期有所增長，特別是在歐洲央行行長Jean-Claude Trichet發表對美元目前的走勢“紊亂”與“失望”的看法後，更是如此。一些人擔心，美聯儲放鬆銀根的做法將會對全球性流動性過剩與通貨膨脹推波助瀾。總而言之，人們對美國抵禦其國內的金融危機所造成的全球貨幣體系的危險的不穩定性憂心忡忡。

大膽之舉

截至今年2月，美國的通脹率爲4%，其中核心通脹率（不包括食品與燃料）爲2.3%，實際短期利率爲負。而縱觀歷次衰退，實際利率爲負的情况僅僅出現在衰退結束之時或結束之後。根據聯邦基金期貨的價格判斷，未來實際利率還會下降，到下個月末會降至1.75%。歐元區的通脹水平較低，但仍爲14年來的最高值3.3%，高于歐洲央行2%的上限。

美聯儲之所以比其它央行更加大膽，是因爲美國的經濟正陷于困境。它幾乎無疑已經處于衰退狀態。但中央銀行不同的官方目標使其扮演了不同的角色。美聯儲被賦予了促進經濟增長和保持物價穩定的雙重功能。而絕大多數發達國家和少數中等發展中國家的央行則僅僅是控制通貨膨脹，很多央行確實有著明確的通脹目標。

歷史如明鏡。作爲20世紀最可怕的經濟灾難，大蕭條的烙印深植于美國人的心中。而其它國家（特別是作為歐洲央行所在地的德國）對惡性通脹所帶來的餘威也依然心有餘悸。

然而，相左的觀點幷沒有消除。長期以來，美聯儲堅持認爲中央銀行不應該試圖去戳破資産泡沫，但當它們破裂時則必須迅速地進行處理。而其它中央銀行認爲在互聯網泡沫破滅後的寬鬆貨幣政策與當前破裂的房地産市場泡沫有直接的關係。美聯儲仍然通過貨幣政策持有大量作爲保險機制的儲備。考慮到由Alan Greenspan（截止2006年，他一直是美聯儲主席）導致的通貨緊縮風險，2001-03年的美聯儲持續降息，幷將其保持。

作爲繼任者，Ben Bernanke對這些觀點的認同較Greenspan有過之而無不及。作爲學院派人物，Bernanke先生强烈反對以資産價格作爲目標，其原因在于他認爲這樣會産生不必要的波動。2003年，作爲美聯儲管理者的他堅定不移地支持通過降息來抑制通貨緊縮。

如今我們不遺餘力對付的問題是金融市場的失靈以及其對經濟造成的損害。Bernanke先生是對付大蕭條的專家，也是一位充滿智慧的對付通過銀行危機使經濟下滑的“金融加速器”的先驅。他認爲較低的利率是阻止經濟下滑的利器。

一旦泡沫破裂，要做的遠比由將目標與價格的背離以及産出增長趨勢和適當的利率聯繫起來的單憑經驗的方法（如Taylor規則）所暗示的要多得多。正如美聯儲另一位重量級經濟學家Frederic Mishkin所說的：“適合于金融市場動蕩時期的貨幣政策與市場功能正常時的截然不同。”

雖然這種觀點占據統治地位，但美國的中央銀行家們對其去不以爲然。一些地方聯邦儲備銀行的主席毫不隱諱其對通貨膨脹的擔憂。Kansas City聯邦儲備銀行的主席Tom Hoenig認爲：“我們在處理金融危機的貨幣政策上的負擔過重了。” Dallas聯邦儲備銀行主席Richard Fisher和Philadelphia聯邦儲備銀行主席Charles Plosser，沒有同意將利率下調0.75個百分點，而是主張降低調整幅度。

與美國相比，其它國家對這些情况的擔心有過之而無不及。但Mishkin先生和其他經濟學家去不以爲然。他們認爲，首先，下滑中的經濟將會降低通脹壓力；其次，對通脹的預期仍然保持平穩；再次，一旦金融灾難的風險過去，經濟的迅速平穩會被快速的緊縮所反映。

可悲的是，這些觀點沒有一個是清晰可見的。毫無疑問，在經濟不景氣的情况下更應該會降低通貨膨脹。2月份，核心消費者價格指數保持平穩，但是商品價格以及美元貶值趨勢仍預示著價格上漲壓力的存在。在全球經濟增長仍然强勁的大背景下，國內的産出與國內的通貨膨脹之間的聯繫可能會减弱。

根據預期，一些令人擔憂的迹象正在漸次浮現，而且美聯儲在3月18日發表的聲明中對此毫不諱言。基于測量的指標正在小幅上揚，而基于市場的指標從年初就開始擴大，例如與通脹相關聯的國債和普通國債之間的利率差。由這兩種國債的收益率所顯示的10年預期通脹率已達2.5%。Cleveland聯邦儲備銀行根據此二者的流動性以及市場上通脹風險升水的差异而調整的指標甚至更大。

最後，像Mishkin先生和其他人所說的快速降息之後再迅速升息很難做到。歷史上也是如此。斯坦福大學的經濟學家、Taylor法則的創始人John Taylor指出，只要美聯儲的降息幅度超過了Taylor法則所給出的範圍，就需要很長的時間將其回調到正常水平。但是，信貸市場失靈所帶來的風險却不會一夜之間烟消雲散。由于快速的緊縮可能導致新的金融風險，因此美聯儲自身的邏輯也暗示了利率將會逐漸升高。

不僅如此，較高的通貨膨脹可能降低抵押債務的實際負擔，從而减輕由房地産市場蕭條所導致的償付能力問題。總而言之，人們輕而易舉地就可以相信，美聯儲將會容忍比它聲稱的更高的通脹率，而且時間也更長。

連鎖效應

以上所述對其他人來說意味著什麽？從理論上來說沒有什麽影響，因爲在浮動匯率制度下，各國可以自主確定通過膨脹率，且貨幣間匯率也會自行調整。但實際情况要複雜得多。

首先，匯率的波動幅度傾向于遠遠大于利率差所允許的範圍，近期歐元對美元的大幅升值就是例證。匯率的波動本身就能引起恐慌，尤其是在美元下跌，且美國仍然依賴于外國資本（儘管經常賬戶的逆差在第四季度有所减少，但仍達到了去年GDP的5.3%）的情况下。與此同時，市場的變化會讓那些貨幣升值的國家的出口商們大呼救命。上述這些問題在規模較較小的開放經濟體中體現得更加突出：例如智利和新西蘭，當它們提高利率以應對通貨膨脹的時候，外國資本便會蜂擁而入，特別是在美國在執行寬鬆的經濟政策的時候。

更加重要的是，幷非所有國家執行的都是浮動匯率制度。例如，海灣地區的石油輸出國，其貨幣匯率是釘住美元的：沙特阿拉伯的裏亞爾與美元的匯率被固定爲3.75。由此，那些貨幣釘住美元的國家實際上也就將寬鬆的貨幣政策與通貨膨脹壓力一起，傳導進了國內。沙特阿拉伯當前7%的通貨膨脹率就是27年來最高的。

有迹象表明，美聯儲的政策正在促使一些國家重新考慮本國貨幣與美元的關係。例如，人們普遍推測，卡塔爾與阿聯酋將會放弃釘住美元的匯率制度。許多亞洲國家也已經允許其貨幣充分升值。于2005年放弃釘住美元的匯率制度的中國已經加快了人民幣升值的步伐。所有這些都何其明智，但是短期內，由于投資者擔心新興市場的中央銀行對持有大量美元的熱情將不復存在，從而導致美元的波動更加劇烈。

如果美國的利率依然維持在不相稱的低水平，那麽其它新興市場可能會采取措施控制資本流入：上周，巴西政府對外國資本購買以本幣爲單位的固定收益證券徵收1.5%的稅，此來减緩其貨幣升值。即便如此，如果美國仍然保持寬鬆的政策，那麽對于小型的新興經濟體而言也很難達到它們的通脹目標，而且這個目標本身也可能會引發問題。

不僅如此，大型經濟體也不能忽視其貨幣問題。雖然歐洲央行大放厥詞，但是它可能不得不在比預期的時間更早的時間點上執行寬鬆的貨幣政策，從而遏制歐元的升值。Taylor先生的研究表明，歐洲央行執行的實際政策和其“最優”政策之間的偏差與美國短期利率間存在很强的相關性。聯邦基金利率减少一個百分點就已經讓歐洲央行偏離它的最優政策零點二個百分點了。他還認爲，對匯率的擔憂是央行偏離其最優政策的罪魁禍首。

對上述所有這些情况的擔憂程度取决于其經濟規模。適度擡高的通貨膨脹或者大幅波動的匯率，看上去是爲防止美國金融體系崩潰而付出的微不足道的代價。唉，但是適度的調整是無法保證的。最黑暗的一幕的出現正在成爲可能，即投資者對美聯儲的寬鬆政策的恐慌，使得美元貶值的速度如自由落體一般。一場真正的美元崩潰將迫使美聯儲提高利率，這無疑將使美國的困境雪上加霜，甚至將全球經濟也拖入衰退的深淵。美聯儲面臨的是冰火兩重天的局面，而世界其它國家則將面臨萬劫不復的境地。

Rule 1: Life is not fair - get used to it!

Rule 2: The world won't care about your self-esteem. The world will expect you to accomplish something BEFORE you feel good about yourself.

Rule 3: You will NOT make $60,000 a year right out of high school. You won't be a vice-president with a car phone until you earn both.

Rule 4: If you think your teacher is tough, wait till you get a boss.

Rule 6: If you mess up, it's not your parents' fault, so don't whine about your mistakes, learn from them.

Rule 7: Before you were born, your parents weren't as boring as they are now. They got that way from paying your bills, cleaning your clothes and listening to you talk about how cool you thought you were. So before you save the rain forest from the parasites of your parent's generation, try delousing the closet in your own room.

Rule 8: Your school may have done away with winners and losers, but life HAS NOT. In some schools they have abolished failing grades and they'll give you as MANY TIMES as you want to get the right answer. This doesn't bear the slightest resemblance to ANYTHING in real life.

Rule 9: Life is not divided into semesters. You don't get summers off and very few employers are interested in helping you FIND YOURSELF. Do that on your own time.

Rule 10: Television is NOT real life. In real life people actually have to leave the coffee shop and go to jobs.